QR 26: Choice and Chance

 

Assignment #5: Introduction to Probability

 

 

  1. Study Chapter 7 of MHD. Also read the hand out "Subjective Probability" by Richard Jeffrey. Do not worry about sections 1.5 and 1.8.

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  2. Do the exercise handed out on "Choosing a Graduate School."

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  3. Problems from MHD to hand in:

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    1. Prepare notes to hand in and discuss on the "Decision Analysis Monthly" Case at the end of Chapter 7 in MHD. It might be useful to compare this with Problem 15 at the end of Jeffrey's chapter.

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    2. To think about: How would you explain what probability is? Why do you think philosophers and scientists have struggled over this question so much? Also, why do you think Jeffrey distinguishes between countable and uncountable infinities? Shouldn't probabilities always be additive?